Memory Market Not Forecast to Exceed 2018 High of $163.3B until 2022.
Strong growth forecast to return to the memory IC market in 2021 (21%) and 2022 (29%).
The most current 2017-2024 forecast for 33 major IC product segments (e.g., DRAM, 16-bit MCUs, power management analog devices, etc.) by market, unit shipments, and ASP was presented in the April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20).
A weak DRAM market put a lid on growth in the total memory market in 2015 and 2016. But robust DRAM and NAND flash market growth in 2017 and 2018 lifted the total memory market 64% and 26%, respectively (Figure 1). After those two outstanding growth years, the memory market reversed course in 2019 as DRAM and NAND flash sales dragged the overall memory market 32% lower to $110.4 billion.
Before the global pandemic took hold in 1Q20, IC Insights was forecasting a strong 14% increase in the total memory market this year. As shown, the total memory market in 2020 is now expected to be flat with 2019. Although strong growth is expected to return to the memory market in 2021 (21%) and 2022 (29%), the total memory market is not expected to exceed the 2018 all-time high of $163.3 billion until 2022 when it is forecast to reach $171.0 billion, yielding a 2019-2022 CAGR of 15.7%.
DRAM is expected to account for 53% of the memory market in 2020 (Figure 2) and flash memory’s share is forecast to be 45% (44% NAND flash, 1% NOR flash). Though there remains a viable market for other memory products (EEPROM, EPROM, ROM, SRAM, etc.), in the future, it is highly unlikely these segments will collectively account for much more marketshare than they currently do.