German PC Market Will Rebound in 2024, Driven by Healthy Deal Pipeline and Inventory, Says IDC

LONDON — According to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) forecast, the German PC market is expected to continue declining in the third quarter of 2023, at a year-on-year rate of 6.2%. The outlook for the rest of the year remains bleak, with shipment volume forecast at 9.6 million units in 2023, a 14.8% drop compared to last year, as vendors and distributors remain cautious in face of the German economic recession. However, IDC expects the PC shipment contraction in the second half of 2023 to be less severe than in the previous 12 months, as the basis for comparison is now lower.

“The German PC market is expected to return to positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, after six consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline,” says Malini Paul, senior research manager for European Devices at IDC. “The PC market recovery will continue in 2024 and beyond at a slow pace, thanks to an anticipated healthy inventory and a strong pipeline of deals”.

IDC projects 8.1% year-on-year growth for the German PC market in 2024, as shipment seasonality is expected to normalize after years characterized by a lockdown-induced boom-and-bust cycle. The supply chain constraints during the boom period led to a backlog, which has been deployed in the bust phase, resulting in large inventories.

“The market hasn’t really returned to normal since the pandemic hit,” says Daniel Goncalves, senior research manager, European Devices, IDC. “As inventory returns to healthy levels and all participants in the PC supply chain keep adjusting to the current reality of demand, PC sell-in will start aligning with sell-out.”

Germany’s market dynamics reflect that of the overall Western European (WE) region, where a sudden drop in demand led to aggressive pricing strategies and curtailment of shipments by vendors. IDC projects a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in the WE PC market in Q3 2023 and a double-digit decline for the whole of 2023.