Fusion Posts January ‘Greensheet’
Key Themes
- DDR5 RDIMM Enters a Hyperinflation Phase: DDR5 RDIMM pricing has surged to unprecedented levels. 64GB modules now trade above $1,500, and 96GB units exceed $3,200, with weekly price resets becoming standard. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are allocating over 75% of output directly to hyperscalers, leaving traditional OEMs and distributors scrambling in a seller’s market with NCNR terms and no visibility beyond Q1.
- Automotive DRAM Chip Supply Tightens as AI Allocation Accelerates: Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are devoting most of their resources to AI and server-class HBM and DRAM. AI-driven demand far exceeds current capacity, pushing automotive-critical DRAM further down allocation priorities through 2026. Automotive OEMs are already entering the market early to secure buffer supply.
- Nexperia Fragmentation Deepens: While limited domestic shipments from Nexperia China have resumed under yuan-based transactions, global OEMs, including automotive Tier 1s, are permanently qualifying On Semi, Diodes Inc., and Infineon as replacements. Authenticity concerns persist for parts produced after October 2025, and Malaysia-based production remains unreliable, with many high-runners still facing lead times into 2027. A hearing began on 1/14 in the Netherlands, and so far there appears to be no clear compromise or resolution.
- Intel’s 10nm Portfolio Becoming Less Viable: Intel is enforcing double-digit price hikes across its entire 10nm CPU stack (12th–14th Gen desktop, mobile, and server) effective Q2 2026, citing unsustainable economics. Small-core CPUs (N97, N305, N355) remain in short supply, with allocations being decommitted as far out as March 2026. Customers report Intel is now demanding 6-month forecasts just to secure minimal volumes.
- SSD & HDD Allocation Collapses for Non-Hyperscalers: Enterprise SSDs from Solidigm, Samsung, and Kioxia are now effectively reserved for top customers. Channel partners receive <30% allocation and face 20–70% Q1 price hikes. Similarly, 20TB+ HDDs from Seagate and WD are backlogged into mid-2026, while low-capacity drives (1–2TB) are being phased out entirely to force upgrades.
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