Smartphone Sales Decline in February as Brands Raise Prices Amid Rising Memory Costs

• Counterpoint has observed noticeable price increases across most Android brands, like Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, realme and Transsion Group, as of February 2026.
• Most significant price increases have appeared in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa so far.
• Global smartphone ASPs are expected to grow 12% YoY for the full year 2026.

As per Counterpoint’s latest Market Pulse (Early Look), Global smartphone sell-through volumes are expected to decline 1% Year-on-Year (YoY) in February. In terms of Year-to-Date (YTD, Jan-Feb) sell-through volumes, the market decline is more significant across regions, with global volumes down 4% YTD.

• As of February, global smartphone prices rose modestly across brands, with the most significant price increases seen in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa so far. That said, more markets, like Europe, the Middle East and Latin America are expected to see increases in the coming months across brands. Many brands, like OPPO in China, have released official communiques to inform their customers of price increases on older devices.

•  Price increases have ranged from slight to modest (5-10% on average) so far as OEMs rely on component inventories and older memory supply contracts. Additionally, many brands have also absorbed costs, cutting into profit margins and cash reserves, to maintain or even gain market share. However, as memory prices continue to rise and new memory supply contracts are negotiated, costs will have to pass down to consumers. We expect price increases to accelerate in Q2-Q3 2026, likely peaking in Q4 2026-Q1 2027.

• Currently, prices have increased for some older models, with most price increases coming in the form of increased launch prices. Some OEMs have made fewer memory variants available for their respective recent launches in a bid to preserve DRAM, where possible, based on priceband. Other OEMs have also pushed price increases on their premium consumer base. For example, Samsung increased the launch price of its flagship Galaxy S26 series, across all models.

• Price increases have also varied across regions, rising most aggressively in India (10%+ in Feb 2026) and China, where OEMs are broadly hiking retail prices to offset rising memory costs. Southeast Asia saw more apparent increases from January across lower and mid-tier portfolios, while the USA has seen minimal increases beyond Samsung’s S26 series. In MEA, price hikes have been mostly limited to Africa (primarily Transsion brands), with some Chinese brands reducing device availability. In Latin America, prices haven’t risen beyond inflation, but OEMs, operators, and retailers have cut discounts significantly, and several brands are expected to downsize regional portfolios.

• Overall, the price increases so far (in the range of 5-10%) have largely been in line with our expectations, with shipment ASPs expected to grow 10% YoY in Q1, as per our latest smartphone forecast. While price increases are adding to ASP growth, other key drivers also include premiumization and increased penetration of 5G devices in OEM portfolios.
• The global slowdown in sales so far, in the January-February period, (-4% YoY) is better than our shipments forecast from the latest edition of Market Outlook. We expect a 9% YoY decline in shipments in Q1 2026. The decline in sales is likely to be slower than shipments in Q1 2026, due to inventory corrections following the high channel fill seen at the close of 2025.

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