Global Smartphone Market Likely to Decline Marginally in November 2025

•  Smartphone sell-through volumes are likely to decline 0.8% YoY and 15% MoM in November 2025.
• The YoY decline is largely due to the shift of promotions season in India
• The market is likely to grow 3% year-to-date in November, with volumes either up or flat across most regions.
•  Global smartphone sell-through is set to grow 3% YoY in 2025, in line with Counterpoint’s latest sell-in forecast.

Global smartphone sell-through volumes are expected to decline 0.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) and 15% Month-on-Month (MoM) in November 2025, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Pulse Early Look service. The marginal YoY decline, however, is largely due to the shift of promotions season in India, surrounding festive events like Diwali, to earlier in the year, pulling demand forward. Despite the YoY slowdown in November, global smartphone sell-through volumes are likely to be up 3% Year-to-Date (YTD, Jan-Nov) compared to 2024. Most regions are likely to be up YTD as macroeconomic recovery trends continue across most regions. Resilient demand for flagship devices and a strong iPhone upgrade cycle in North America and other mature markets is expected to continue in November and the rest of Q4, helping drive YoY growth.
As for MoM movements, the global market is likely to record a decline in November due to steep seasonal declines in India, China, North America and Japan. That said, Black Friday deals and other local promotional events began in November in other markets, featuring attractive offers and hardware bundles, helping drive MoM growth in many regions – Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific Others, Latin America and South Korea.

China

• Smartphone sell-through is expected to decline 10% MoM, but continues its YoY growth streak, with volumes likely to be up 3% YoY in November. Sales are to decline MoM due to post-Singles Day slowdown as promotions came to an end in the second half of November.
• Much of the Singles Day demand boost moved into October due to an early start to promotions, leading to a slowdown in YoY growth in November compared to October.
• The market is expected to be up YoY largely due to the ongoing massive iPhone replacement cycle, boost by iPhone 17 sales.
• The China market is off to a stronger start than expected in Q4, largely due to the success of the iPhone 17 series, but we expect growth to moderate in December, with sales for the full year 2025 likely to remain flat YoY.

United States of America

• Smartphone sales in the USA are expected to decline 23% MoM but remain up 1% YoY in November – impacted by the slowing of iPhone sales post initial launch month.
• It is Apple’s anticipated growth of 6% YoY that is mainly responsible for the US market to remain positive YoY in November. Apple’s performance in November was impacted negatively by continued elevated wait times across flagship series models and variants vs. last year. Particularly AT&T subscribers have faced longer wait times for new iPhones.
• Android OEMs, outside of Google, are anticipated to decline YoY.

India

•  Smartphone sell-through is expected to decline sharply MoM, with sales down 68% MoM, owing to the post-festive season slowdown and growing impact of memory price hikes. Brands increased device prices immediately after the festive season which weakened consumer demand. Retailers also reported lower footfall, as consumers became more cautious due to the price hikes.
• The market is also expected to decline 35% YoY largely due to an early start to the festive season in 2024. Festive season sales make up 25-30% of annual sales of the India smartphone market, and with Diwali falling on a different date each year, creating tough YoY comps.
• That said, the market is likely to be up 3% YoY for the three-month period (Sep-Nov) and 3% Year-to-date (Jan-Nov). Despite steep MoM and YoY declines in November, most brands remained up or flat YoY for YTD volumes.

Europe

• Smartphone sales in Western Europe are likely to grow 1% MoM in November led by Black Friday promotions, with Apple, Samsung and Google being especially aggressive in key Western European markets like the UK and Germany.
• Apple, however, is expected to record a MoM decline as the post-launch slowdown offset any potential gains from Black Friday promotions. All other brands are expected to be up MoM in November.
• The market is expected to grow 3% YoY largely due to a strong premium segment upgrade cycle and heightened OEM channel activity in the region throughout the year.
• Smartphone sales in Eastern Europe are expected to grow 2% MoM in November, with volumes likely to be down 6% YoY. The MoM increase is largely due to Black Friday promotions across key Eastern European market like Poland, Turkey and even Russia, to some extent. All brands are expected to grow MoM in November. The market is expected to be down YoY owing to continued weakness in the Russian market due to high inflation and weak consumer sentiment. Most brands are expected to be down YoY except Samsung, Motorola, OPPO and HONOR

Rest of World

• Japan’s smartphone sales are expected to decline 11% MoM as broad-based lower demand offsets Google MoM increase (+14%). However, YoY the market is expected to grow by 4% thanks to Apple, Google and continued elevated sales from Samsung.
  • The Japanese market continues to benefit from improved economic conditions, leading to increased upgrade rates.
• Sales in South Korea are likely to grow 7% MoM and 2% YoY in November, largely due to increased launch and promotional activity by Apple and Samsung.
  •  While the market is likely to be up YoY due to strong iPhone 17 series performance and continued demand for Samsung’s flagships, sales volumes are flat YTD, indicating that the market is not seeing fundamental growth. The growth is only due to out-of-sync launches and other shifts in demand due to idiosyncratic factors like the SKT hack in Q2.
• Smartphone sales in the Asia-Pacific Others region (Asia-Pacific ex. China, India, Japan, Korea) are expected to grow 2% MoM and 9% YoY in November led by the onset of multiple promotions across key markets like Singles’ Day (11.11), Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.
  • The market remains up YoY largely due to improved macroeconomic conditions than in 2024, chiefly government stimulus driven infrastructure investment, wage increases and easing inflation across key markets in the region like Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.
  • Sales are also likely to be up 6% YTD, indicating strong volume growth for the full year 2025.
• The Latin American smartphone market is expected to grow 10% MoM but decline 2% YoY in November. Declines in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico offset YoY growth in Colombia and Peru.
  • Because of the earlier start to the November promotions window in late October, some demand was pulled forward resulting in the YoY decline and preventing higher MoM growth.
  • Aggressive promotions and discounts usually kick in during November and December, boosting sales at the end of the year.
• Smartphone sales in the Middle East & Africa are expected to grow 1% MoM and 8% YoY in November. The MoM growth is largely due to Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, especially in the Middle East.
  • Many channels and brands have already begun some promotional activity for their holiday and end-of-year sale seasons, with most brands expected to record MoM growth in November.

Despite the YoY slowdown in November, global smartphone sell-through is set to record ~3% YoY growth for the full year, 2025. This is largely in line with our latest shipment forecast, which also predicts 3% growth in 2025.
The mounting memory shortages and price increases have already begun to affect device prices in some markets (China, India, etc.), but the market is yet to face the full impact of upcoming supply crunch. We expect the first wave of significant impact on supply and demand to begin in Q1 2026, and likely persist through the rest of 2026. The market is likely to bottom out in H2 2026, with recovery set for H1 2027 behind strong pent-up demand across markets.
The shortages are likely to affect supply and demand for lower segment devices most, consequently hurting growth prospects for markets and OEMs most exposed to those price tiers, like India, MEA, etc. and Transsion, realme, etc., respectively. Regions with a greater premium consumer base will likely face lesser pressures of the demand side, like North America, Western Europe, Japan and Korea.

On the supply side, smartphone OEMs best positioned to weather supply shortages will be those with scale, broad product portfolios (especially at the high end) and tight vertical integration, like Samsung and Apple. We are already seeing mitigation strategies among OEMs which are facing greater cost pressures, like changing portfolio mix, reusing old components and downgrades of other specifications in some models.