Preparing for a Stronger Tomorrow

"When will there be good news?" This question is reverberating louder and louder through the global PV manufacturing industry in a variety of languages. Hardly a week goes by without news of foreclosures, insolvencies, or significant project delays. The global PV equipment book-to-bill ratio for the first quarter of 2012 hovered around 0.40. It's just plain bad. And the solar winter seems likely to continue for a while.

Overcapacity is still about 2X of demand, and it's going to take some time for the market to absorb this excess capacity, and for cell makers to start manufacturing again. GTM Research reported that about 21GW of capacity will be retired by 2015 due to consolidation, attrition and downramping. And trade disputes are expanding to Europe and Korea, further complicating the industry's recovery.

The combination of all these difficult circumstances presents a big challenge to companies in the manufacturing supply chain. We at SEMI work hard to help our members and the industry at large through these trying times. We are exploring opportunities to provide more value through new and extended partnerships in market research, for example. The CPTIC conference during SOLARCON China in March gave attendees rich content on technology, markets, policy and roadmaps - as well as some tips for the inevitable upturn. Our PV standards activities worldwide have resulted in 34 published PV manufacturing standards to date, with about a dozen in the pipeline, further contributing to overall manufacturing cost reduction. We have successfully launched the globalization of the International Technology Roadmap for PV (ITRPV) and the PV Manufacturing Consortium (PVMC) activity on creating a CIGS technology roadmap is gaining momentum.

Last, but certainly not least, despite the gloom and doom, SEMI's PV Production & Technology Hall at Intersolar Europe 2012 in Munich and Intersolar North America in San Francisco was busy, and feedback from exhibitors and visitors was positive and often upbeat. We all know the upturn will happen, and we hope and plan for it sooner rather than later. We will look back on this time knowing that are stronger and better positioned to keep the promise of seeing solar energy ubiquitously deployed around the world.

SEMI PV Group, The Grid - July 2012