TRi forecasts Top-5 technology products in China
Sep 07, 2007
The Topology Research Institute (TRi), the largest private market-research institute in Taiwan, recently published its forecast for the top-five hot-technology products in mainland China: low-end multimedia cellphones, electric bicycles, LCD TVs, budget notebook PCs, and digital photo frames.
Each category in the list is expected to enjoy double-digit growth in annual sales volume over next few years. For low-priced LCD TVs the growth figure is forecast at 57% this year, bringing the total to about 8.9 million units, thanks to the Beijing Olympics effect and the advent of digital-TV broadcasting. In 2008, TRi predicts, LCD TV sales in China will grow 67% to 14.84 million units.
| TRi`s Forecast for Top-5 Technology Products in China | | Product | Sales Volume (million units) | Annual Growth | | 　 | 2007 (e) | 2008 (f) | 2007 | 2008 | | Low-level Multimedia Cellphones | 82.60 | 114.37 | -- | 38% | | Electric Bicycles | 17.4 | 22.0 | 17% | 26% | | LCD TVs | 8.9 | 14.84 | 57% | 67% | | Budget Notebook PCs | 5.5 | 7.7 | 14% | 40% | | Digital Photo Frames | 0.499 | 2.445 | 414% | 390% |
Source: Tri, Aug. 2007
Multimedia Cellphones
With a potential customer base of about 910 million people in backcountry (rural and poorly developed) areas, the low-end multimedia cellphone is destined to be the hottest and most popular technology product in China.
Data released by TRi indicate that about 267 million handsets were shipped by Chinese manufacturers in the first half of this year, up 37.6% from a year earlier; the total included about 103 million units sold in the domestic market, up 59%. Of all categories, low-end multimedia handsets (those priced under 600 renminbi, or RMB) enjoyed the highest growth rate.
In 2005 low-end multimedia handsets accounted for only 2% of China's total cellphone market, but the figure rose to 16% in 2006 and 39% in the first half of this year. Cellphone platform solution providers such as Texas Instruments (TI), NXP Semiconductors, and MTK, Infineon have targeted the lesser-developed areas that contain 70% of China's population for the marketing of low-priced multimedia handset solutions.
LCD TVs
Thanks to the emerging digital TV industry in China, plus a decline in prices to more affordable levels, sales of LCD TVs in China soared 188% to 39.79 million units in the first six months of this year, according to TRi data. Increasing demand came not only from big cities like Shanghai and Beijing, but also from second- and third-class cities.
With the mass production of large-sized thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) TV panels using new 7.5-generation (7.5G) and 8G facilities, the prices of large-sized LCD TVs are no long unreachable. A 32-inch LCD TV, for example, is now priced at only about 6,000 RMB in China (US$1 equals approximately 7.6 RMB). With the coming of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, TRi forecasts that sales of high-quality LCD TVs will continue growing, making these among the hottest consumer electronic products in China.
Digital Photo Frames
Another market focus is the digital photo frame, which is gaining favor in China as prices fall due to increasingly fierce competition. TRi's data show that only 97,000 digital photo frames were sold in China in 2006; but the figure is expected to increase to 499,000 this year (accounting for about 5.2% of global sales), and to reach 2.45 million in 2008 (15% of the global total).
Electric Bicycles
About 14.45 million electric bicycles were sold in China last year, accounting for about 95.6% of global shipments. These vehicles are expected to become increasingly dominant tools for short-distance commuting in China, TRi predicts, because mass transportation systems in big cities cannot keep up with population growth. With their powerful advantages--zero-emissions, convenience, high mobility, energy conservation, and low cost--electric bicycles are expected to become increasingly popular in China.
This is especially true as many first-class cities, including the capital of Beijing, have lifted their bans on electric-bike license and on-road use.
Budget Notebook PCs
Data released by TRi indicate that consumption of notebook PCs in China will reach 5.5 million units this year and soar to about 7.7 million units in 2008 due to increasingly affordable prices. TRi said that sales of notebook PCs in China are expected to be further stimulated by the introduction of low-priced models by major international brands as well as charitable institutions. These include the OLPC (one laptop per child) developed by MIT Media Lab., the Classmate PC by Intel, and the EeePC by Asus.
With almost as many functions and capabilities as the general notebook PC, these ultra-low-cost notebooks are expected to enjoy smooth sales in China and elsewhere, especially among rural residents and students.
source & copyright: CENS
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